Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics

In “Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading”, physicist and economist Bertrand M. Roehner blends quantitative analysis with socio-economic theory to explore how collective behavior drives financial speculation. This book is an intellectual investigation into the hidden forces behind booms and busts, revealing how markets behave less like rational systems and more like social organisms.

Drawing parallels between financial markets and physical systems, Roehner uncovers repeatable behavioral patterns seen across major historical speculative episodes—from the 1929 Crash to more recent bubbles. The book is packed with empirical studies, models, and data-backed comparisons to demonstrate how mass psychology, imitation, and contagion shape market behavior more than individual rational choices.

Unlike mainstream economic models that assume efficient markets and independent decision-making, Roehner argues for a paradigm rooted in physics-style modeling and collective dynamics. His multidisciplinary approach, which merges physics, sociology, and economics, offers a refreshing and rigorous lens through which to understand speculation.

Whether you’re a trader curious about deeper mechanisms or a researcher of market anomalies, this book provides a scholarly yet accessible dive into how markets move as crowds — not individuals.

✅ What You’ll Learn:

• How speculative markets resemble social systems more than rational mechanisms
• The role of imitation, rumor, and contagion in financial bubbles
• Why mainstream economic models often fail to predict speculative surges
• Analytical techniques and models inspired by statistical physics
• Historical case studies that reveal universal behavioral patterns in speculation

💡 Key Benefits:

• A scientific and empirical framework for understanding financial manias
• Helps you see speculative markets as collective behavioral systems
• Merges physics, sociology, and finance in one cohesive narrative
• Excellent resource for traders, economists, and academic researchers
• Challenges conventional thinking and introduces new analytical methods

👤 Who This Book Is For:

• Traders and investors seeking to understand deeper market dynamics
• Students and researchers in economics, physics, or finance
• Professionals interested in behavioral finance and collective psychology
• Anyone fascinated by the causes behind bubbles, panics, and market crashes

📚 Table of Contents:

1. Introduction
2. Rational versus Speculative Markets
3. The Building Blocks of Collective Behavior
4. Experimental and Observational Evidence
5. Scaling and Universality in Market Behavior
6. The Physics of Speculation
7. Data Analysis of Market Episodes
8. The Role of the Media and Public Discourse
9. Policy Implications and Regulatory Views
10. Conclusion