Market Timing with Moving Averages: The Anatomy and Performance of Trading Rules

Market Timing with Moving Averages by Valeriy Zakamulin is a rare academic-level exploration into one of the most widely used tools in trading: moving averages. But this book goes far beyond basic crossovers—it dissects the mathematics, mechanics, and performance of moving average trading rules with rigorous statistical analysis and practical implementation guidance.

Zakamulin dives into the underlying structure and timing logic behind simple, exponential, and weighted moving averages. He evaluates how different lengths, combinations, and filters impact trading performance under various market conditions. This is a must-read for traders, quantitative analysts, and strategists seeking to turn a common indicator into a systematic, profitable, and optimized trading strategy.

This book is as much a research foundation as it is a practical manual for building evidence-based, non-random moving average systems that adapt to trend changes with minimal lag.

✅ What You’ll Learn:

• The theoretical and mathematical foundation of moving averages
• How to select optimal moving average lengths based on historical data
• The performance of moving average strategies across different market regimes
• The differences and applications of SMA, EMA, WMA, and other variations
• How to test and improve trend-following systems using moving average timing rules
• Why moving averages work—and when they don’t

💡 Key Benefits:

• Go beyond “golden cross/death cross” logic with deep insight into timing rules
• Discover how to fine-tune moving average parameters for real market conditions
• Understand the statistical behavior of moving average strategies
• Develop your own adaptive, data-backed trend trading models
• Avoid common misconceptions and false signals by learning the anatomy of the indicator

👤 Who This Book Is For:

• Quantitative traders and system developers
• Technical analysts interested in timing models
• Intermediate to advanced traders using trend-following strategies
• Investors seeking rules-based methods for entry and exit
• Students and professionals exploring academic finance and market efficiency

📚 Table of Contents:

1. Introduction to Market Timing and Technical Analysis
2. The Structure and Properties of Moving Averages
3. Theoretical Justification of Moving Average Rules
4. Static and Dynamic Performance Evaluation
5. Designing Optimal Moving Average Systems
6. Dual and Triple MA Timing Systems
7. Applications in Market Regime Filtering
8. Empirical Studies and Market Data Testing
9. Practical Considerations for Implementation
10. Limitations and Future Research Directions